www.jpmorganmarkets.comAsiaPacificEquityResearch13August2019EquityRatingsandPriceTargetsMktCapPriceRatingPriceTargetCompanyTicker($mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCurEndDatePrevEndDateSMPrimeHoldingsSMPHPM19,750PHP35.50OWUW40.00Jun-2035.00n/cAyalaLandALIPM13,283PHP48.65Nn/c47.00Jun-2049.00n/cRobinsonsLandCorpRLCPM2,435PHP25.00OWn/c28.00Jun-2029.00Dec-19MegaworldCorpMEGPM2,912PHP5.70UWOW4.80Jun-206.60n/cFilinvestLand,Inc.FLIPM846PHP1.81UWN1.60Jun-20n/cDec-19Source:Companydata,Bloomberg,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof12Aug19.PhilippinePropertyRealitybites:POGOpartywindingdown,shifttodefensives;D/GMEG,FLItoUW&U/GSMPHtoOWPhilippinesPropertyJeanetteYutanAC(63-2)878-1188jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAYUTANJ.P.MorganSecuritiesPhilippines,Inc.JellineGaza,CFA(63-2)8781131jelline.gaza@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesPhilippines,Inc.CussonLeung,CFA(852)2800-8526cusson.leung@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedSeepage27foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.WeturnlessconstructiveonthePHrealestatesector.Ourbasecaseisatrendreversalforresisalestake-upandadecelerationofofficeleasinggrowth,drivenbytheimpactofaseriousturninthePOGOclampdown.Wethinkabear-casescenariowherePOGOscomestoagrindinghaltisatailrisk,assovereigntylinespreventChinafrompushinganabsoluteban.OurpreferenceisretaillandlordslikeRLCandSMPH,giventheirhighdomesticconsumption-ledretailearningsstreamandrelativelylowChineseexposure.Ourpreferenceorder:SMPH>RLC>ALI>MEG>FLI.Chinafinallyspeaks.TheChinesegovernment,inastatement,explicitlyurgedthePHgovernmenttoclampdownonPHcasinos,POGOs;thisistoprotectChinesecitizensfromemploymentabuseandtocrackdownongambling-relatedcrimescommittedbyChine...
