巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-新兴市场资金流动：投资组合资金在6月份流入有所增加-20190701-7页 (2).pdfVIP免费

|FOCUS02/07/20191FOCUS|EM1July2019EMFlows:PortfolioinflowspickupinJuneKEYMESSAGESLatestdatafromtheInstituteofInternationalFinance(IIF)showsinflowstoEMstotalledUSD40.8bninJune2019,withinflowsintoequitiesanddebttotallingUSD12.6bnandUSD28.2bn,respectively.Thetrendwasinlinewithourflowmodelprojections.OurmodelsuggeststhatthereisroomforEMportfolioflowstoincreasetoUSD55bnoverthenextthreemonths.ThepickupininflowsinQ1andQ22019hasbeenoneofthedriversofourmoresupportiveEMoutlook.Ouranalysishasshownastrongrelationshipbetweenportfolioflows(ona12-monthrollingbasis)andUSDperformanceoverthepasttwoyears.Wealsonoticedsignsofareversalinthedowntrendin12-monthcumulativeflows,inlinewiththeslightweaknessoftheUSdollaronatrade-weightedbasis.Pleaserefertoimportantinformation,MARDisclosureattheendofthisreportEMSTRATEGYEMportfolioflowmodelWeintroducedanewmodelforportfolioflowsintoemergingmarketsinQ42018.Sincethen,themodel’sprojectionshaveperformedwell.WehaveupdatedthemodelwithJune’sresultsandhaveconductedanewroundofconditionalprojectionsforthenextthreemonths.TheresultsshowthatthereisroomforEMportfolioinflowstoincreasetoUSD55bnoverthenextthreemonths(seeFig.1-3).Themodel’sstatisticsarerelativelystrong,withanR²of~60%.Inaddition,allvariableshavestatisticalsignificancewithlessthan1%inconfidencelevelandnocorrelationbetweeneachother.AccordingtothelatestdatafromtheInstituteofInternationalFinance(IIF),monthlyinflowstoEMsamountedtoUSD40.8bninJune.Ofthis,debtinflowstotalledUSD28.2bn,whileequityinflowsamountedtoUSD12.6bn.Forfurtherdetailsonthemethodology:IntroducinganewmodelforEMportfolioflows;flowstotheupsideFig.1-3:IIFEMportfolioflowsvsBNPParibasmodel(USDbn,Fig.3USDtrn)Sources:Bloomberg,BNPParibas;asofJune2019-40-20020406080Jan-15May-16Sep-17Jan-19EMFlowsModelIIFEMFlowsConditionalprojectionZoom0.00.71.42.12.83.5200720092011201420162018EMflow|cumulativeUSDtrnEMflowmodel-80-50-201040702007200920112013201520172019EMFlowsModelIIFEMFlowsGabrielGersztein,GlobalHeadofEmergingMarketsStrategy|BancoBNPParib...