EquityResearch21January2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE43.NorthAmericaMetals&MiningQ4preview:RegulatoryrisksinfocusTaxesandpermits:Whileregulatoryrisksdon’tfollowaquarterlyschedule,theyareimportanttotheinvestmentthesesofmanycompanies.Ascompanieslayouttheirroadmapsfortheyear,weareinterestedtoseehowconstructivemanagementisontheseongoingissues.Africaremainsakeyregionoffocusregardingtaxationandwemaygetanupdateonimpacts/discussionsinZambia(FM,GOLD),Tanzania(GOLD),andMauritania(KGC,andbyextensionFNV).InLatinAmerica,Mexicohasalsobecomeimportanttofollowfromataxperspective,althoughdetailsmaystillbelacking(GGandbyextensionNEM,AEM,FNV,WPM,RGLD).Wearen’texpectinganychangesonArgentinaexporttaxes(AUY,GG,GOLD)thatcameintoeffectthisyear,butwemaygetanupdateonFM’seffortstoreplaceLaw9inPanama.InNorthAmerica,thefocusislargelyonpermittingwhereanypromisingdetailsonprogressoftheRosemontSection404CleanWaterActpermitcouldbeverymeaningfultoHBM.FurtherdetailsonTECK’sElkValleywatercompliancemayalsobeforthcoming.Keyguidanceupdates:WearemostfocusedonguidancefromGOLDgivenitsnewmanagement,andFM(especiallyasitpertainstotheoutlookatCobrePanama).HBMwillalsobeimportantaswefindoutwhereConstanciaproductionisheadedwhileaccesstoPampacanchaisdelayed.GivenextremereactionstoTeck’s2018coalcostguidanceinQ3/18wearealsointerestedtoseewhere2019costguidancecomesout.WeanticipaterelativelystableoutlooksfromFCX,AEM,KGC,OGC,andAUY,andwealreadyhaveguidancefromNEMandLUN.WeareuncertainwhetherGGwillprovideguidanceontheirassetpor...
