巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-我们如何分析新兴市场？-20190606-49页 (2).pdfVIP免费

PleaserefertoimportantinformationattheendofthisreportEMERGINGMARKETS:DIFFERENTIATIONMATTERSEMERGINGMARKETSRESEARCHJune2019MarceloCarvalho,HeadofGlobalEmergingMarketsResearchLuizEduardoPeixoto,EmergingMarketsEconomistBNPParibasLondonbranchHOWWEANALYSEEMERGINGMARKETS2Transmissionchannels3231AgendaBROADERTRENDS:EMINBETTERSHAPEGLOBALDRIVERS:GROWTH,RATES,ANDUSDLOCALDRIVERS:ELECTIONSANDPOLICIESSCENARIO&FORECASTSCHEATSHEETFROMOURTEAM4GLOBALDRIVERS:GROWTH,RATESANDUSD14Globalgrowth:Slowingadvancedeconomies……..…5China:Policystimulusplaysarole……………………..6Worldtrade…………………..…….……………………..7Worldtrade:Slowdownintradehintsofslowinggrowth..8Worldtrade:Tradewarimpactscountriesdifferently..9BNPParibasEMtradewarexposureindex…………...10Realinterestrates:KeyforEMs;………………………11USrates:Reallong-termratesmatterforEMs………12HistoricalUSdollarcycles…………..………………...13HistoricalUSdollarcycles(2)……….………………..14HistoricalUSdollarcycles(3)………………….…….15BNPPSovereignRatingsIndex……………………....16GLOBALGROWTH:SLOWINGADVANCEDECONOMIES5Sources:OECD,Macrobond,BNPParibas.DottedlinesstandforBNPParibasforecasts.AdvancedeconomiesareslowingGlobalGDPgrowth(%y/ygrowth,3mma)DottedlinesdenoteBNPParibasforecasts.CHINA:POLICYSTIMULUSPLAYSAROLE6Sources:PBoC,ChinaNBS,BNPParibasWeexpecteconomicgrowthtostabiliseinChina,asextrastimulusyieldsresultsForecastsareprovisionalandsubjecttochange.Chineseindustrialproduction,servicesectorandcreditstimulus(%y/ygrowth,3mma)ChineseGDPgrowthanddomesticdemand(%y/ygrowth)81216202456789101120122013201420152016201720182019IndustrialproductionTertiarysectorOutstandingloans,privatesector(RHS)DottedlinesdenoteBNPParibasforecasts.4812162020132014201520162017201820192020GDPrealgrowthAggregategoodsdemand7WORLDTRADESources:Macrobond,BNPParibasWorldtradehasbeenslowingsincethestartoftheyearGlobaltradevssemiconductorsales(%y/ygrowth,3mma)8WORLDTRADE:DROPINTRADEHINTSOFSLOWINGGROWTHOurtrademonitorsuggestsEMexportshaveyettorecov...