J.P. 摩根-全球-半导体行业-全球存储器市场：资本支出削减对供应的影响以及与前一个周期的不同之处-2019.2.7-29页.pdfVIP免费

AsiaPacificEquityResearch07February2019GlobalMemoryMarketFindingthebottomofthecycle:Impactonsupplyfromcapexcuts,andwhat'sdifferentvsthepreviouscycleTechnology-SemiconductorsJJParkAC(82-2)758-5717jj.park@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAPARKJ.P.MorganSecurities(FarEast)Limited,SeoulBranchVaibhavArya(91-22)6157-3652vaibhav.arya@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganIndiaPrivateLimitedHisashiMoriyama(81-3)6736-8601hisashi.moriyama@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMAMORIYAMAJPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.HarlanSur(1-415)315-6700harlan.sur@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMASURJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCBillPeterson(1-415)315-6766bill.peterson@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeepage25foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.www.jpmorganmarkets.comWeareupdatingourGlobalMemoryModelpost4Q18results,revisedcapexandshipmentgrowthguidanceandouroutlookformemorypricingbasedonupcomingsupplyanddemand.WeexpectthememorymarkettoreachUS$111bnin2019(~27%annualdeclineafter100%+growthinthelasttwoyears)whichincludesa30%reductionforDRAMand23%reductionforNAND.Givenrisinginventoryatmemorymakersandweakend-demandoutlook,weexpect40%DRAMpricecorrectionand45%NANDpricecorrectionin2019.Capexcutsdon’timpact2019supply:Giventhetwo-yearlagbetweencapexcutsandactualimpactonsupplygrowth,welookatthethree-yearmovingaveragecapextrendtoassessupcomingsupplygrowth.Withameaningfulcapexhikein2017/2018andstill-highcapexlevelsin2019,weexpectoverallthree-yearmovingaveragecapextoremainhighthroughoutourforecastingperiod.Hence,wedonotexpectanymeaningfulslowdowninproductionoutputdespiterecentcapexcutannouncementsbyallmajorDRAMmakers.Prevailingoversupplylikelytocontinue:OurupdatedmodelindicatesthatoverallDRAMdemandgrowthwillbe12%Y/Yin2019vs.s...