J.P. 摩根-美股-制药行业-美国制药业展望：继续看好大型股-2019.9-106页.pdfVIP免费

1Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.NorthAmericaEquityResearchSeptember2019PharmaceuticalsChrisSchott,CFAAC(1-212)622-5676christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCUSPharmaOutlookStayingBullishontheLargeCapsChristopherNeyor(1-212)622-0334christopher.z.neyor@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCEkaterinaKnyazkova(1-212)622-9576Ekaterina.v.knyazkova@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCXilingChen(1-212)622-0364Xiling.chen@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC2OverallPositioningMajorPharmaWeseeanongoingnewproductcycle,includingbothrecentandupcomingapprovals,translatingintoanupwardbiastoournear-andlong-termestimatesPricingconcernsremainakeyfocuspointofdiscussiononthegroupbutweseecommercialpricingdynamicsalreadywellreflectedinour/StreetestimatesandgovernmentreformremainingmanageableAdmittedly,the2020PresidentialElectionseasonrhetoricremainsawildcardOurrecommendationsareskewedtowardsnameswiththegreatestpotentialforEPSupside(LLY,MRK)orthosetradingatasteepdiscounttopeers(BMY)Favoriteideas:LLY,BMY,MRKSpecPharmaWearemarginallylessbearishonthegrouprelativeto2018withearningshavinglikelybottomedformostnames.However,withleveragestillelevated,relativelyfewgrowthdrivers,andrecentlyre-surfacedopioidandpricefixingsuits,westilldonotseeacompellingreasontobroadlyownthegroup.Favoriteideas:CHRS,MYL.Leastfavoritenames:TEVA,ENDP,MNK,AMRXAnimalHealthMostattractivefundamentals(andhighestvaluations)inourcoverage,butwecontinuetoseethepotentialfortop-andbottom-linebeatsforbothZTSandELAN.Particularlyinterestingnamesonanybroadermarketpullback.Favoriteideas:ZTS,ELAN3MajorPharmaceuticals:StayingBullishontheSector’sNewProductCycl...