J.P. 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-2019.2.1-92页.pdfVIP免费

EconomicResearchFebruary1,2019GlobalDataWatchFOMCshiftsfromapauseintighteningtoaneutralstanceManufacturingweaknesspersistsasglobalcapexgainslikelystallExpectingabroaderdovishtiltfromEMcentralbanksNextweek:RBItoease;GermanIPrebounds;compositePMIdropsIntothecloset,Mr.PhillipsTwokeyelementsofourmacroeconomicoutlookwereprominentinthisweek’snewsflow.Thefirstisthatdragsweighingonglobalgrowthareun-likelytofadesoonandwillbeconcentratedinthemanufacturingsector.Thesecondisthatthesedragsarebeingabsorbed,thusfar,withlimitedadjust-mentstoprivatesectorbehaviorandwithadditionalmacroeconomicpolicysupports.Ofgreatestimportanceonthepolicyfrontisthisweek’ssignalfromtheFedthatitnolongerhasabiastowardtighteningandthatinflationwillneedtomoveupbeforeitconsidersfurtherrateincreases.ThisshiftsuggeststhatevenwithareasonablyfirmeconomytheriskhastiltedawayfromourforecastofaresumptionoftighteninginJuly.ThelatestactivityreadingspointtoanewlegofmanufacturingweaknesswiththeglobalmanufacturingoutputPMIdeclining1.1ptsto50.8inJanuary,consistentwithIPgainsofjust1.1%ar.OfmoreconcernisthatthenewordersPMIslidtojust50.1,itslowestlevelinoversixyears.Fromthedemandside,thesourceofthisproductionweaknesslikelyiscapex.WiththefallinPMIordersconcentratedinGermany(44.7),China(47.3),andJapan(48.7),itisreasonabletoconcludethatlastyear’sslideinbusinessexpectationsisnowslowingglobalinvestmentspending.Availabledatapointtoasharpdecelerationinourglobalcapexproxy,withglobalcapitalgoodsimportstrackingback-to-backdeclinesinNovem-ber/December,ledbyacollapseinChina(Figure1).Likewise,ourglobalinvest-mentgoodsoutputPMIplungedinJanuary,consistentwithastallincapexgrowth.Forthepastyear,aslideinbusinessexpectations,linkedtotheUS-Chinatradeconflict,threatenedtoslowinvestmentspending.Thisappearstobehappen-ing,withothersourcesofgeopoliticaluncertaintyandthetighteninginglobalfinancialconditionslastquartermagnifyingthedrag.Atthesametimethatmanufacturingstruggles,thenewsfromlabormarketsandconsumersremainsupbeat.LedbyrobustU...