J.P. 摩根-美股-保险行业-2019年Q2寿险行业展望：利率下降和本年迄今强劲的表现使寿险股不那么引人注目-2019.7.1-113页 (2).pdfVIP免费

www.jpmorganmarkets.comNorthAmericaEquityResearch01July2019LifeInsurance2Q19OutlookDropinRatesandStrongYTDPerformanceMakeLifeStocksLessCompellingInsurance--LifeJimmyS.Bhullar,CFAAC(1-212)622-6397jimmy.s.bhullar@jpmorgan.comBloombergJPMABHULLARPabloS.Singzon(1-212)622-2295pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeepage111foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Weareshiftingourviewonthelifeinsurancesectorfrompositivetoneutral.Ouroutlookforbusinessfundamentalsisconsistentwithpreviously,butwefeelthatthesharpdropininterestratesandthegroup’sstrongperformancemakestherisk-rewardinstockslesscompelling.Wefeelthatlifestockshavenotfullyadjustedtoreflectthedeclineinrates.This,alongwithexpectedreductionsinEPSforecastscouldweighonthegroup’sperformance.ReducingEPSestimates.Wearecuttingestimatesformostlifeinsurerstoreflectthedeclineinnewmoneyyieldsandothercompany-specificfactors,partlyoffsetbythestrongequitymarketin2Q19.Ourforecastsformostinsurersarebelowconsensus,butwefeelthat2QestimatesforAIG,HIG,andMETareespeciallyoptimistic.For2020,weareconsiderablybelowconsensusonAIG,ATH,andVOYA,butslightlyaboveforAFLandPFG.Weexpectlifeinsurerstoreporthealthyresultsin2Q19.AlthoughourEPSestimatesarebelowconsensus,weexpectbusinesstrendstobehealthyoverall,markedbyrobustalternativeinvestmentincome(giventhe1-quarterlagforprivateequityfunds),asequentialincreaseinfeeincome(duetothestrongequitymarket),andstablemortality/morbiditymargins.Onacautiousnote,weexpectorganicgrowthformostlifeinsuranceproductstobepoor.Ourlong-termoutlookisdownbeat.Onapositivenote,lifeinsurershaveamplecapitalflexibilityforongoingsharebuybacksanddividendhikes.Inaddition,weexpectpricecompetitioninmostproductstoberational.Conversely,w...