J.P. 摩根-全球-外汇策略-美元外汇展望：不会下跌-2019.5.3-57页.pdfVIP免费

GlobalFXStrategy3May2019FXOutlook:USDisneitherdownnoroutGlobalFXStrategyPaulMeggyesiACHead,FXstrategy(44-20)71342714paul.meggyesi@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcAllchartsaresourcedfromJ.P.Morganunlessotherwisespecified.Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.1GLOBALFXOUTLOOK2019MainthemesTheFed’sconversiontoinflationfundamentalismhastakensomeofthesteamoutoftheUSDrallywithoutyetconvincinglyjustifyinganoutrightreversal.ItshouldberememberedthatFedeasingcyclesareambiguousforUSD.Globalgrowthhasfoundafloorbutthereboundisstilltooweakandgeographicallyuneventojustifyabroad-basedsetbacktoUSD,certainlynotwhentheUSitselfisliftingandcontinuingtooutshinekeyregionsincludingtheEuroarea.AnormalisationinamoderatelyexpensiveUSDandevencheapercurrenciessuchasEURrequiresmuchmoreconvincingevidenceonaglobalreboundthatbeginstoovershadowtheUScycle.Untilsuchevidenceistohand,USDremainssupportedbythehighabsolutelevelofUSyieldsandtheaggressivepricingforFedeasingcomparedtootherCBs(especiallyinEurope).Moreover,USDisbenefitingbydefaultfromtheconfluenceofnegativecountry-specificfactorsinmanyG10countries,principallythelikelyonsetofindependenteasingcyclesintheantipodeansandthepotentialinconsistencybetweenrelativelysteepEuropeancurvesandinmanycasesstillsub-pargrowthandlimitedinflationarypressuresintheregion.TacticallyweexpecttheJPMUSDindextotestthe2018highs1.5%awayandcontinuetopositionlongUSD.Wedon’truleoutatestofthe2017highs(+3.5%)butsuspectthiswillbeasteptoofarbararelapseinglobalgrowth.EURremainscyclicallychallengedbutstructurallyrobustasthestrongestunderlyingbalanceofpaymentsinG3isbeingaugmentedbyhistoricallysizeablereservediversification.ThesefactorssupporteventualmodestappreciationinEUR/USD,butthetriggerneedstobesustainedandconvincingliftinregionalgrowth.Thisisnotyetinhand.CurrentkeytraderecommendationsShortEUR/USD(cashand3mput);shortEUR/JPY(long3mput,short3mUSD/JPYput),shortNZD/USD(cashandviaa3mNZD/USDputfundedbysellinga3mAUD/NZDput);s...