1/37fa概览6月，建行商品指数上涨1.19%，收于2241.71。其中，煤炭、钢矿板块上涨1.30%，贵金属上涨7.65%，有色板块上涨0.04%，农产品板块下跌0.71%。数据来源：Wind、CCB内外盘商品价格走势数据来源：Wind、CCB金融市场交易中心2019年6月大宗商品市场CommoditiesMarket2/37摘要作者原油：崔悦钢铁：袁匡济铜：张航大豆：孙慧萍021-60637062021-60637067021-60637068021-60637065cuiyue1.zh@ccb.comyuankuangji.zh@ccb.comzhanghang1.zh@ccb.comsunhuiping.zh@ccb.com复核陆怡烽021-60637061luyifeng.zh@ccb.com审核格根021-60637055gegen.zh@ccb.com3/37目录原油.................................................................................................................................................................4一、走势回顾：中东地缘局势升温，油价震荡后上行.............................................................................4二、供给收缩：OPEC产量下降，伊朗出口持续下滑................................................................................5三、美逆季节累库将结束，宏观下行压力大.............................................................................................7四、伊朗局势进一步恶化可能性不大.......................................................................................................10五、后市展望：OPEC减产前景与宏观预期共同影响油价......................................................................11钢铁...............................................................................................................................................................12一、市场回顾：钢价结束横盘向上突破，矿价强势不改再创新高.......................................................12二、影响因素分析：钢材需求维持强势，铁矿供给持续短缺...............................................................12三、后市展望：需求预计平稳增长，重点关注限产政策变化...............................................................19铜....................................................................................................................................................................
