引用格式:幸元兴，张建勋，满谦，等．多状态切换下随机退化设备剩余寿命预测［J］．电光与控制，2023，30(7):111-118．XINGYX,ZHANGJX,MANQ,etal．Ｒemainingusefullifepredictionformulti-stateswitchingrandomdegradationequipment［J］．ElectronicsOptics＆Control,2023,30(7):111-118．多状态切换下随机退化设备剩余寿命预测幸元兴1，张建勋1，满谦2，胡昌华1，杜党波1，裴洪1(1．火箭军工程大学，西安710000;2．火箭军装备部驻西安地区第二军事代表室，西安710000)摘要:工业设备、武器装备等大型复杂系统在全寿命周期中通常会经历贮存、待机、测试、运转、维修等多个状态，且不同状态下设备内部损耗速率各不相同，这给设备的剩余寿命预测问题带来新的挑战。鉴于此，提出了基于维纳过程建立多状态切换设备的退化模型，结合半马尔可夫模型和离散马尔可夫链模型，推导得到了多状态切换设备的剩余寿命，并提出了一种蒙特卡罗仿真算法进行求解。此外，采用了期望最大化算法和极大似然算法辨识所提模型参数。最后，通过仿真实验和实际案例证明了所提算法的有效性。关键词:多状态;剩余寿命预测;维纳过程;半马尔可夫;离散马尔可夫链中图分类号:TP202+．1文献标志码:Adoi:10．3969/j．issn．1671－637X．2023．07．020ＲemainingUsefulLifePredictionforMulti-stateSwitchingＲandomDegradationEquipmentXINGYuanxing1,ZHANGJianxun1,MANqian2,HUChanghua1,DUDangbo1,PEIHong1(1．ＲocketForceUniversityofEngineering,Xi’an710000,China;2．TheSecondMilitaryＲepresentativeOfficeoftheＲocketArmyEquipmentDepartmentinXi’anＲegion,Xi’an710000,China)Abstract:Large-scalecomplexsystemssuchasindustrialequipmentandweaponsusuallygothroughstorage,standby,testing,operation,maintenanceandotherstatesinthewholelifecycle,andtheinternalwearrateofequipmentisdifferentindifferentstates,whichbringsnewchallengestotheproblemofremainingusefullifepredictionofequipment．Inviewofthis,thedegradationmodelofmulti-stateswitchingequipmentisestablishedbasedonWienerprocess,andtheremainingusefullifeofmulti-stateswitchingequipmentisderivedbycombiningsemi-MarkovmodelanddiscreteMarkovchainmodel,andaMonteCarlosimulationmethodisproposedtosolveit．Inaddition,expectationmaximizationalgorithmandmaximumlikelihoodalgorit...
