No.12023马来西亚政党博弈对“一带一路”倡议合作项目进展影响机制分析徐梦盈※摘要：一国的内外政策受诸多因素影响，但很大程度上与其政党政治密切相关。马来西亚政党政治兼具竞争性与协商性的特点，执政党与反对党联盟之间、政党联盟内部包含了多重竞争与多元合作关系。文章选取“政权内部政党共识凝聚/分裂”和“在野党支持/反对程度”作为两大内外政策影响变量，尝试构建马来西亚政党博弈对中马共建“一带一路”倡议合作项目进展影响机制的分析框架，并通过纳吉布政府和马哈蒂尔政府关于“一带一路”倡议合作项目的政策回应为验证案例，以期更为客观地解构马来西亚政党博弈与中马共建“一带一路”倡议合作项目进展影响间的逻辑联系。研究表明，马来西亚政权的频繁变动会直接引致各政党对“一带一路”倡议合作项目推进的重新博弈或多维博弈，进而对中马共建“一带一路”倡议合作项目进展产生积极或消极影响。关键词：马来西亚；“一带一路”倡议；政党博弈；东铁项目；政策回应［中图分类号］F125［文献标识码］A［文章编号］1003－2479（2023）01-072-15AnAnalysisoftheInfluenceofMalaysianPartyGameonSino-MalaysiaBRIProjectsXuMengyingAbstract：Thedomesticandforeignpoliciesofacountryareinfluencedbymanyfactors,buttoalargeextentarecloselyrelatedtoitspartypolitics.Malaysianpartypoliticshasthecharacteristicsofbothcompetitivenessandnegotiativeness.Therearemultiplecompetitionandcooperationbetweentherulingparty,theoppositionpartyalli⁃anceandwithinthepartyalliance.Thispaperselects"consensusbuilding/splittingofpoliticalpartieswithinthere⁃gime"and"degreeofsupport/oppositionofoppositionparties"astwomajorinfluencingvariablesofdomesticandforeignpolicies,andattemptstoconstructananalyticalframeworkoftheinfluencemechanismofMalaysianpoliticalpartygameontheprogressofChina-MalaysiaBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)projects,andmoreover,verifiesthecasethroughthepolicyresponseoftheNajibgovernmentandtheMahathirgovernmentontheBRIprojectsinordertomoreobjectivelydeconstructthelogicalrelationshipbetweenthegameofMalaysianpoliticalpartiesandtheprogressoftheSino-Malaysianprojects.ItisfoundthatthefrequentchangesoftheMalaysianregimewilldirectlyleadtothere-gameormulti-dimensionalg...
