2023.№3大电机技术基于风险概率评估的若水电站调度运行丁仁山1，胡伟2，邹皓1，蹇德平1，何国春1(1.雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司，成都610051;2.清华大学，北京100084)［摘要］若水电站为攀西地区风光“填空式”发电，具有库容小、调节能力差、出入库流量难以平衡、上下游水位变化幅度较大、负荷调整和闸门操作频繁、水库水位控制和河道管理安全风险高的特点。为预控若水电站调度运行风险，本文通过进行调度运行风险辨识，给出了运行风险概率模型，提出了风险指标及其计算方法，设计了风险评估分析模型，并选取不同季节实际数据进行了风险计算分析，算例结果验证了风险评估和计算的可行性和有效性，研究成果可为梯级水库安全优化调度提供参考。［关键词］梯级水电站联合优化调度;水风光互补;若水电站;风险指标;评估;算例［中图分类号］TM622［文献标志码］A［文章编号］1000-3983(2023)03-0087-08DispatchingOperationbasedonＲiskProbabilityAssessmentofＲuoshuiHydropowerStationDINGＲenshan1，HUWei2，ZOUHao1，JIANDeping1，HEGuochun1(1．YalongＲiverHydropowerDevelopmentCo．，Ltd．，Chengdu610051，China;2．TsinghuaUniversity，Beijing100084，China)Abstract:Ｒuoshuihydropowerstationisthe“fillintheblankstype”powerstationinPanxiarea，whichhasthecharacteristicsofsmallstoragecapacity，poorregulationability，difficultbalanceofdischargeintoandoutofthereservoir，largevariationrangeofupstreamanddownstreamwaterlevels，frequentloadadjustmentandgateoperation，highsafetyriskofreservoirwaterlevelcontrolandrivermanagement．Inordertopre-controltheoperationriskofＲuoshuihydropowerstation，thispapergivestheprobabilitymodelofoperationrisk，putsforwardtheriskindicatoranditscalculationmethod，anddesignstheriskassessmentandanalysismodelthroughtheidentificationofoperationrisk，andwedoariskanalysisontheactualdataindifferentseasons，numericalexampleresultsshowthefeasibilityandvalidityoftheriskassessmentandcalculation．Theresearchresultscanprovidereferencefortheoptimaloperationofcascadereservoirs．Keywords:regulationandstorageofcascadehydropowerstation;hydropower-wind-solarenergycomplementarysystem;Ｒuoshuihydropowerstation;riskindicator;assessment;example基...
