收稿日期：2022—10—26基金项目：北京水务青年科技骨干人才培养计划（BWAPT2019）作者简介：张冠宇（1988—），男，工程师，主要从事流域防洪减灾工作。摘要：为有效解决潮白河流域中小水库洪水监测、预报调度的实际问题，本研究选取潮白河流域内暴雨频发、山洪沟道密集、防洪库容偏小的大水峪水库为研究对象，基于HEC-HMS水文模型，构建大水峪水库洪水预报模型，为水库科学优化洪水调度提供依据。HEC-HMS模型是一个具有物理概念的分布式降雨径流模型，在洪水预报中具有广泛的应用。通过大水峪水库上游4场降雨洪水过程，对该模型进行了率定验证，洪峰流量场次模拟合格率为75%，满足乙级预报精度要求。分析表明该模型在大水峪水库洪水预报模拟上有很好的应用。关键词：小流域；HEC-HMS模型；洪水预报；大水峪水库中图分类号：TV124；TV122文献标识码：A文章编号：1004-7328（2023）03-0052-05DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2023.03.015基于HEC-HMS模型的大水峪水库洪水预报研究张冠宇（北京市密云水库管理处，北京101512）ResearchonFloodForecastingofDashuiyuReservoirbasedonHEC-HMSModelZHANGGuan-yu（BeijingMiyunReservoirManagementOffice，Beijing101512，China）Abstract：Toeffectivelysolvethepracticalproblemsoffloodmonitoring，forecastinganddispatchingofsmallandmedium-sizedreservoirsinChaobaiRiverBasin，thisstudyselectsDashuiyuReservoirinChaobaiRiverBasinwithfrequentrainstorms，densemountainfloodchannelsandsmallfloodcontrolstoragecapacityastheresearchobject.BasedonHEC-HMShydrologicalmodel，thefloodforecastingmodelofDashuiyuReservoirisbuilttoprovideabasisforthescientificoptimizationofflooddispatchingofthereservoir.HEC-HMSmodelisadistributedrainfallrunoffmodelwithphysicalconcept，whichiswidelyusedinfloodforecasting.ThroughfourrainfallandfloodprocessesintheupperreachesofDashuiyuReservoir，thecalibrationverificationofthemodeliscarriedout，andthequalifiedrateoffloodpeakflowfieldsimulationis75%，whichmeetstherequirementofClassBforecastingaccuracy.TheanalysisshowsthatthismodelhasgoodapplicationinfloodforecastingandsimulationofDashuiyuReservoir.Keywords：smallbasin；HEC-HMSmodel；floodforecasting；DashuiyuReservoir新中国成立前，潮白河是一条水旱灾害频...
