收稿日期:2022—10—26基金项目:北京水务青年科技骨干人才培养计划(BWAPT2019)作者简介:张冠宇(1988—),男,工程师,主要从事流域防洪减灾工作。摘要:为有效解决潮白河流域中小水库洪水监测、预报调度的实际问题,本研究选取潮白河流域内暴雨频发、山洪沟道密集、防洪库容偏小的大水峪水库为研究对象,基于HEC-HMS水文模型,构建大水峪水库洪水预报模型,为水库科学优化洪水调度提供依据。HEC-HMS模型是一个具有物理概念的分布式降雨径流模型,在洪水预报中具有广泛的应用。通过大水峪水库上游4场降雨洪水过程,对该模型进行了率定验证,洪峰流量场次模拟合格率为75%,满足乙级预报精度要求。分析表明该模型在大水峪水库洪水预报模拟上有很好的应用。关键词:小流域;HEC-HMS模型;洪水预报;大水峪水库中图分类号:TV124;TV122文献标识码:A文章编号:1004-7328(2023)03-0052-05DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2023.03.015基于HEC-HMS模型的大水峪水库洪水预报研究张冠宇(北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512)ResearchonFloodForecastingofDashuiyuReservoirbasedonHEC-HMSModelZHANGGuan-yu(BeijingMiyunReservoirManagementOffice,Beijing101512,China)Abstract:Toeffectivelysolvethepracticalproblemsoffloodmonitoring,forecastinganddispatchingofsmallandmedium-sizedreservoirsinChaobaiRiverBasin,thisstudyselectsDashuiyuReservoirinChaobaiRiverBasinwithfrequentrainstorms,densemountainfloodchannelsandsmallfloodcontrolstoragecapacityastheresearchobject.BasedonHEC-HMShydrologicalmodel,thefloodforecastingmodelofDashuiyuReservoirisbuilttoprovideabasisforthescientificoptimizationofflooddispatchingofthereservoir.HEC-HMSmodelisadistributedrainfallrunoffmodelwithphysicalconcept,whichiswidelyusedinfloodforecasting.ThroughfourrainfallandfloodprocessesintheupperreachesofDashuiyuReservoir,thecalibrationverificationofthemodeliscarriedout,andthequalifiedrateoffloodpeakflowfieldsimulationis75%,whichmeetstherequirementofClassBforecastingaccuracy.TheanalysisshowsthatthismodelhasgoodapplicationinfloodforecastingandsimulationofDashuiyuReservoir.Keywords:smallbasin;HEC-HMSmodel;floodforecasting;DashuiyuReservoir新中国成立前,潮白河是一条水旱灾害频...