2023年第01期·总第343期6【经贸实务】基于VAR模型的跨境电商、对外贸易与经济增长关系研究王晓涵（河北经贸大学，河北石家庄050000）[摘要]作为一种全新的贸易形式和拉动对外贸易增长的新动力，跨境电商对于中国稳定对外贸易、促进经济增长发挥了积极的作用。在跨境电商强势发展的背景下，基于中国2008—2020年的跨境电商交易额、进出口贸易额和GDP数据，采用VAR模型对跨境电商、对外贸易与经济增长三者之间的关系进行实证研究。实证研究结果发现，跨境电商对于对外贸易、经济增长促进作用显著，三者之间存在着长期均衡关系，但跨境电商的发展未来仍有很大的进步空间，因此从政府和企业两个层面提出了进一步发展跨境电商的对策建议。[关键词]跨境电商；对外贸易；经济增长[中图分类号]F724.6[文献标识码]A[文章编号]2095-3283(2023)01-0006-06ResearchontheRelationshipbetweenCross-BorderE-commerce,ForeignTradeandEconomicGrowthBasedonVARModelWangXiaohan(HebeiUniversityofEconomicsandBusiness,ShijiazhuangHebei050000)Abstract:Asanewformoftradeandanewdrivingforceforforeigntradegrowth,cross-bordere-commercehasplayedapositiveroleinstabilizingChina'sforeigntrade,suppressingtheimpactofCOVID-19andpromotingeconomicgrowth.Inthecontextofstrongdevelopmentofcross-bordere-commerce,thispaperadoptsVARmodeltoconductempiricalresearchontherelationshipamongcross-bordere-commerce,foreigntradeandeconomicgrowthbasedonthedataofcross-bordere-commercetransactionvolume,importandexportvolumeandGDPfrom2008to2020inChina.Empiricalresearchresultsshowthatcross-bordere-commerceplaysasignificantroleinpromotingforeigntradeandeconomicgrowth,andthereisalong-termequilibriumrelationshipamongthethree.However,thedevelopmentofcross-bordere-commerceismoreaffectedbyrelevantpoliciesandGDPfluctuations,andthereisstillalotofroomforprogressinthefuture.Basedonthis,countermeasuresandsuggestionsforfurtherdevelopmentofcross-bordere-commerceareproposedfromthegovernmentandenterprises.KeyWords:Cross-borderE-commerce;ForeignTrade;EconomicGrowth作为互联网发展到一定阶段的新型贸易模式，近些年跨境电商的发展势头愈加强劲。海关统计数据显示，2017年以来我国跨境电商交易额在五年内增长了近10倍，...
