2023年1月JournalofGreenScienceandTechnology第25卷第2期收稿日期:2022-11-22作者简介:林晓晟(1987-),女,博士,工程师,主要从事大气污染防治工作。“双碳”背景下吉林省集中供热行业碳排放基准线及降碳潜力研究林晓晟,史双铭,王玉,于凤洋,刘颖,孙大光(吉林省环境科学研究院,吉林长春130012)摘要:集中供热作为城市的基础设施,对人们的工作与生活具有重要影响。尤其是北方城市,冬季漫长,供热时间长达半年左右,开展行业二氧化碳排放基准线及降碳潜力研究,对实现“双碳”目标意义重大。为此,基于2011~2020年环境统计数据,核算了集中供热行业多年碳排放量,根据城市特征,探析了行业碳排放基准线及降碳潜力。结果表明:全省多年平均碳排放量为3140.8万t/年,在研究时段内行业碳排放量整体呈上升趋势,并未达到峰值;行业碳排放的基准线选择“煤炭消耗排放情景”和“热电联产排放情景”,上述情景模式充分考虑吉林省集中供暖行业碳排放的变化特征,符合城市供暖需求;全省行业碳减排量为1178.37万t/年,降碳潜力37.8%,主要以热电联产的供热方式为主导。关键词:集中供热;碳排放量;降碳潜力;基准线中图分类号:X322文献标识码:A文章编号:1674-9944(2023)02-0132-06ResearchonCarbonEmissionBaselineandCarbonReductionPotentialofJilinCentralHeatingIndustryUndertheBackgroundof"DoubleCarbon"LinXiaosheng,ShiShuangming,WangYu,YuFengyang,LiuYing,SunDaguang(JilinProvincialAcademyofEnvironmentalSciences,Changchun,Jilin130012,China)Abstract:Astheurbaninfrastructure,centralheatinghasanimportantimpactonpeople'sworkandlife.Es-peciallyinnortherncities,thewinterislongandtheheatingtimelastsabouthalfayear.Itisofgreatsignifi-cancetocarryoutresearchontheindustry'scarbondioxideemissionbaselineandcarbonreductionpotentialtoachievethegoalof"doublecarbon".Therefore,basedontheenvironmentalstatisticsfrom2011to2020,thispapercalculatesthecarbonemissionsofthecentralheatingindustryformanyyears,andanalyzestheindustry'scarbonemissionbaselineandcarbonreductionpotentialaccordingtotheurbancharacteristics.Theresearchresultsshowthattheaverageannualcarbonemissionsoftheprovinceare31.408milliontons/year,andtheoverallindustrycarbonemissionsduringtheresearchperiodshowanupwardtrend,notreachingthepeak;Thebaselineofind...
